PEORIA, IL -- The Illinois legislature is made up of elected officials from districts so gerrymandered that there are few contests. Most have safe seats.
Good government groups are out to change that, but could there be unexpected consequences?
The groups are passing petitions to put a new way of drawing the state legislative districts on the November 2014 ballot. They need 300,000 signatures by next March, and likely will have to withstand a court challenge, Michael Kolenc, a campaign leader told the Greater Peoria League of Women Voters at an October 17 meeting.
Kolenc, a Democrat, is a former aide to Sen. Dick Durbin. But influential Democrats oppose the redistricting initiative, fearing its passage will give an advantage to Republicans, due to the structure of the state.
The Democrats in 2010 redistricted -- gerrymandered -- to their advantage. But the overall map now roughly reflects their strength in the state, and left many Republicans in place.
Peoria, for example is split between Democratic and Republican representatives, giving everyone someone to appeal to for help and advocacy.
Kolenc was persuasive as he described the redistricting proposal. An independent commission, selected with many safeguards in place, would redistrict the state in an open, transparent process, he said.
Districts would be more compact, respecting municipal boundaries, federal voting rights laws, and minority and community voting groups, he said.
Political parties reflected in voting patterns would be ignored, he said. There would be an end to politicians picking their voters, instead of the other way around.
Would this process lead to a GOP takeover of the General Assembly, even though Illinois is basically a blue, Democratic majority state?
Allen Mayer, a Democrat and Peoria County Board member who is an attorney and led the peaceful redistricting of the board last year wrote in an email that the requirement to use municipal boundaries would cause "partisan bias against Democrats and minorities." He stated:
"That requirement "packs" minority and Democratic votes into strongly Democratic districts within urban areas. There are a high number of "wasted" votes in these districts - the Democratic candidates will win with 75 or 80 percent.
"Meanwhile, suburban and rural Republican leaning districts will be much more "efficient" and produce victories for Republican candidates at lower margins (e.g. 55 or 60 percent)."
"This article from the University of Michigan lays out my argument very well. And, more importantly, it is backed by actual research. The author used computer simulations (what all sorts of people claim is the "fair" way to draw lines) and demonstrates that this municipal boundary requirement results
in a significant bias against Democrats and minorities."
If this situation occurred, would the GOP majority in the legislature then redistrict the Congressional boundaries to shut out Democrats entirely, as they have done in Texas and elsewhere? There's no gentlemen's agreement with that group.
Some Democrats like Kolenc are backing the redistricting petition, and the League of Women Voters, a nonpartisan group, is backing it and passing petitions energetically.
People are eager to sign, members say, having heard gerrymandering blamed for the national Congressional stalemate and government shut down.
But many conservative groups, such as the Chamber of Commerce, are also backing the petition, likely out of hope the GOP will gain an advantage.
The districts are supposed to be equal in population.
The redistricting proposal of course depends on those empowered to redistrict, but would they turn to computers to do the work? With today's computers, it's easy to tell where voters, as shown by primary ballots, live and how they vote. Check out this new mapping of US households.
Kolenc said the Illinois proposal is based on the California model, and it has improved that state's governance and changed the stalemated legislature. Predictions of Democratic doom didn't happen there, he said.
On a national level, gerrymandering has produced the situation in the US House of Representatives where the Democrats had more total votes but Republicans dominate. Could that happen in Illinois? Mayer thinks it could occur.
The status quo -- legislators with safe seats unless they really mess up -- causes problems. Some Democrats today seem more responsive to big money than to their base, since their seats are safe.
These are complex issues. If the redistriction proposal makes the ballot, the debate may be interesting.
-- Elaine Hopkins
Comment, 10/20/13: Ed Dentino writes via email:
Much as I've thought that non-gerrymanderd districts made
sense in terms of representation, I
have to think Allen Mayer is
correct.
From a campaign standpoint
though, it is pretty difficult to reach
voters effectively when the district is
spread out and contains
small towns and rural
areas. In 2000 when Joyce Harrant
ran against Ray
LaHood, I was
able to go door to door with
campaign brochures
in the Bartonville and
Limestone area. I recall that
Joyce did very well in
that district.
Update, 10/21/13: Here's a very interesting website that supports proportional representation as the only way to give all voters a voice. It has valuable information on the make up of Illinois Congressional districts.
Update 10/21/13: Experts on the Diane Rehm show on NPR discuss the geographical makeup of voters. Here is an interesting quote that tends to undercut the Illinois redistricting effort. From Charlie Cook, editor and publisher at the Cook Political Report:
"Democrats tend to be in urban areas and college towns, and Republicans are sort of spread out everywhere else....And
so that concentration allows, even without gerrymandering, does work
against Democrats...."
And yet: "California changed their process, and we saw more -- between their
primary reform and their redistricting reform, we saw more competition
in California in the last election than probably the previous 10." -30-
Update 10/23/13. Comment via email by former Illinois state Rep. Bill Edley:
It's
hard to argue that Illinois democrats, with a democratic governor and
veto proof majorities in both the house and senate would be better off with a
non-partisan election commission drawing the legislative boundaries. However,
I believe Illinois citizens would be better served by taking politics out of
the map drawing process by adopting something similar to Iowa's.
First, when the
legislature and governor can't agree on a map the current Illinois system comes
down to pulling a name out of hat. Essentially, a winner takes all
proposition. Second, I believe democracy works best when
legislative districts represent communities of interest and citizens have a
clear understanding of who represents their interests in the legislative
process.
Third, the fact that minorities tend to live in compact
communities is not necessarily a permanent situation, i.e. the Chicago suburbs
have become more democratic as minorities have moved into the region. Finally,
even more important than the re-districting process is the manner in which our
political campaigns are financed. We need public funding to reduce the
influence of the financial elite and narrow private interests groups. -30-